Where did all these piecemeal budget policies come from? What was the guiding principle in terms of fairness? I suggest there wasn’t one. It was driven by motives like “it’s time for all of us to contribute”, as Hockey said in his budget speech.
The actual budget numbers were apparently pulled out of the air since no analytical justification was provided – why $180,000 as the income threshold for the 2% tax? Why a $7 co-payment? Why indexation of parental leave at $100,000? And so on. We have no idea whether these changes, in total, will make household income and wealth more unequal, or less?
Government budgets are a hotchpotch of ad hoc tweaks here and there with no rhyme or reason. We need to fix this. First, governments should set a target for the distribution of household income and wealth using a standard measure such as the Gini coefficient. It is a number between zero and one. The higher the number the more unequal is the distribution – and it can be applied to both income and wealth, at the household or individual level, before and after tax, and so on.
According to the ABS, Australia’s GINI coefficient for household after-tax income is 0.32 which is roughly the OECD average, significantly below the United States but significantly above the Scandinavian countries.
Once we’ve set the fairness target, we need an independent organisation like the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) to do a pre-budget assessment for the government, against our fairness target, of proposed budgetary changes.
Then at least we will be able to make an overall assessment of the fairness of the budget, in the same way as we assess the budget against a range of fiscal targets such as the budget deficit, growth of government spending and government debt.
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