Not sure if it's more likely but I teared all three times. From memory the first tear was more painful and took longer to heal than the subsequent ones.
I am quite anxious about the same issue and a few months ago I had the opportunity to ask this very question to an up-to-date, very pro-vaginal, and very well respected OB in Melbourne. He told me that you are 50% LESS likely to tear with subsequent babies, that is, you have half the chance of tearing than you did with #1.
I of course believe him , but I still can't quite get my head around it- I keep thinking, if I have torn already, my tissues there must be weaker (and thus, more likely to re-tear) than if they had never been compromised. But having said that, Im quite happy to take his word as it sounds pretty attractive to me.
I only tore because i had a vac extraction and DD came flying out cos i didnt hear the Dr say 'dont push' any more! Had i heard that (but no one else did either in the room) i may have avoided the tear.
But a 50% less chance is promising! Does that also mean subsquent babies have a lower chance as well...
i tore because of vac and the doc not saying 'dont push' early enough! i wonder if they dont actually know when the baby is gonna come out with the vac and cant give enough warning! but the 50% stat sounds heavenly!!!
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