Did opk today CD15 (Monday) at 12pm lunchtime and it came up +ve. My last 2 cycles have lasted 26 days. Does this mean I have ovulated or am going to ovulate today. My partner lives in the city during the week and we won't be seeing eachother this week.

We bd last Thurs night, friday morning, saturday night and sunday morning (yesterday)

What do you think the chances are of fertilisation?