My DD had both tear ducts blocked from birth. One cleared by itself at about 6 months and the other spontaneously at 14 months.

I was very keen to avoid a probe as I had heard that they often clear by themselves at about 12 months. I was pretty upset that that didn't happen for poor DD at 12 months as I thought it meant a probe. I decided that since the blockage didn't seem to be causing her any distress, it would not hurt to leave it for a little longer and to keep massaging it daily. I just kept hoping that she was suffering from the "grow into their ducts" problem. This is how it turned out for us luckily. One day I realised that I had not had to wipe her eye for a few days and have not had to do so since.

It is a really difficult decision to make as we all want to avoid unnecessary surgery but it seems that only hindsight will really tell you whether you have done the right thing. If there was an easy way to know whether your child is one of those with tear ducts which are not properly formed, that would make all the difference.

Good Luck.
I