Mindy,
You may or may not be ovulating. You can get a surge but not end up actually ovulating (although rare I believe). The progesterone test would comfirm if you have ovulated somewhere between days 14-21 in your cycle. If not, then clomid may be useful to help you ovulate a bit earlier which might increase your chances of conception. It is also possible that you may ovualte on some cycles but not on others. It all depends on how long you are prepared to TTC for without intervention I guess. It's good to know though, that some people are ovulating late like you and still falling pregnant.