Dan, I had a c/s for my first, had a natural delivery for my second and had a tear. It wasn't a 3rd degree or anything, but I must've got the trainee stitching me up. He unpicked me and restitched me 3 times and even wanted to go in for a 4th go. It took a long time to heal and to this day still doesn't feel right. Anyhows, I had another baby after that, 8lb 2 oz and I was crapping myself that I would tear, but amazing I didn't even get a graze at all.
Everyone is different, but I though that I would tell you my story as it might give you a little more confidence.