Long Term TTC & Assisted Conception - Nov 2007 #3

[Mel1977]

Thanks Slyder - he didnt tell me anything like that, simple said fresh is higher chances... so does that mean I would have roughly a 55% chance this cycle? 50/50 isnt so bad really! It does confuse me how they work out that each FET is 10% higher than last cause I always thought that each cycle was individual and not cumulative but hey im no einstein The other thing he (actually it was a fill in doc while he was away) said, which I have found disheartening, is that because of my age and "no medical reason" for infertility that they would expect that I would fall very early if not first cycle. I sort of wish they hadnt told me that stuff, cause it makes it hard to be positive mentally.

[briggsy's girl]

mel, i think the way i read slyders post was more that the fresh transfer had 40% chance, each FET 10% - so over all, when you add them together, you get a higher chance of success than on having just the fresh - i may be wrong though - i just doubt one FET would have any more chance than another...

having said that, there have been a lot of pg announcements lately from FET's - so fingers crossed for you hun! there's obviously hope out there!!

[butterfly_warrior]

The numbers in Slyder's post are a probability thing. It's simply along the lines of the more transfers you have, the closer the probability of you not being pregnant gets to 0. It doesn't indicate much about the actual success of an individual cycle, or maybe it does but my brain just doesn't want to wrestle with the maths right now!

Anyway, I've had two FETs, and both have resulted in a pregnancy. Neither pregnancy was terribly successful, but I find a lot of hope in that regardless.

Good luck, Mel, and when I'm feeling a little less tired and a bit more mentally alert, I'll try to get back to you on the probability stuff.

BW

[Mel1977]

Thanks BG & BW - I feel so dumb with this stuff sometimes. I have to admit it makes me feel a tiny tiny bit more positive to know that both of your BFPs were from FETs BW. Maybe I should stop worrying about stats and chances and find something constructive to do... like washing

[slyder]

Mel, will post more later as heading out the door - I think FETs are something like 25% or a bit higher success rate. It doesn't correlate with the other figures I was giving you and as BW said the other figures are just an overall probability thing. So your chances per FET cycle are definitely greater than 10%.

[briggsy's girl]

sorry - haven't done and FET so was just using 10% as an example! don't shoot me!!

i guess the easy way of saying it would be - the more embies you get from a stim cycle, the more chance there is of success before the next stim cycle

whatever the chances, having an FET is giving you more chance of a pg than not having it Mel - so look at the positive aspects while you're hanging out the washing

[Missy]

Well all im at the end of my TWW. Off tomorrow for my BT. Feeling excited and scared at the same time. bb are very sore and just keep telling myself "yep im pg"

Hope you all had a great w/end

[Acacia]

Missy, very best wishes to you for tomorrow. I hope you can rest well tonight and be ready for the best possible result tomorrow and all the energy you'll need to celebrate! What time is your blood test and how long do they usual take to get results to you? I'll be thinking of you then.

[slyder]

BG, wasn't correcting you - just clarifying my own comments from the last page and was in a rush as well so wasn't being very clear! TBH I'm not fully up with the statistics our FS was quoting as we didn't discuss them in detail - but I do know she said FETs have a 30% success rate per try or something close to that. Now that I am thinking about it, I can see how the other stat works on an overall full cycle basis but I'm not eloquent enough or smart enough at maths to get the words down on screen.

Mel, rest assured that heaps of people get success from FET cycles and just the fact that you are getting embies to freeze is a very good sign in itself. Don't worry about the stats, sometimes too much info is too much info.

[briggsy's girl]

all good slyder!

i try and ignore the stats myself - easier to go into every cycle with hope, than to be thinking about probability of success...

[Pookiegirlba]

Missy - good luck for tomorrow. Be sure to let us know how you went - I'm dying to hear all about it!

Well, I started my Gonal F injections tonight. I was so nervous when I was trying to get the pen all primed and then when I went to give it to myself the first time, I couldn't do it! But then I steadied my nerves and managed to get it in. I hardly felt it! But now I'm worried that I didn't do it right and it won't work b Oh well, just have to do it the way I was shown and hope for the best.

Hope everyone has had a lovely weekend!

Vicki

[Mon]

My Colleague announced her BFP to me after her 1st FET! Hang on to the hope!
Mel, BG, BW. Miss C and every 1 else on stims, hope it hasnt made your weekends so taxing.
Dusty dear, hope those little embies are snuggling in really tight!
Missy hun, I am praying like made for a BFP for you tomorrow! I have a very very strong vibe! Its a BFP! Cant wait to hear the confirmation! I hope the 2WW has flown quickly!!
To every1 else I have missed! Wishing you lots of GL and sending positive baby vibes to all!
Well I've finally O'd, and tomorrow back to the clinic for BT, so guess I will be straight onto the spray on Tues ... so here we go! Anyway hope you all had a fantastic weekend!
Mon

[Acacia]

I think something that's relevant that I seem to have latched on to from my FS / documents I was given at the beginning of IVF is that: On average, 1 IVF cycle (including the stim cycle and any further FET cycles that arise as a consequence) have a much higher chance of producing a full-term baby than the average of the 'normal' population in one natural cycle. I don't remember figures so well in this situation, as I've read so many recently, so even without knowing the figures I take a lot of heart from that fact - we all have (of course on average) a far greater chance of conceiving than even the healthiest and most normal of couples out there without fertility issues! It's a very positive thing to focus on!

Shannon, Melsta, Mel1977 Thanks for your responses about how it felt in your first cycle. I'm feeling very lucky to have so many resources to help deal with the stress and the scariness of the brand new element of it all. BB is huge in that role, and I'm very grateful (Thanks Shannon for reminding me of that) I'm also getting used to knowing that my clinic is there and will be there for me through the whole process, whatever is going on, whether it is the "norm" or not. In essence, my respect continues to grow for you ladies (and gents, DH's and all) and how I see you all managing the various issues that come up in cycles. Without meaning to sound glib or anything, but it's humbling, and helps me put things in perspective all the time. You guys rock

Scan for me in the morning - looking forward to knowing a little more.

Looking forward to hearing how everyone's weekend has been.

Miss C

[dusty]

I have been lurking the last few days. Best of luck to all of you on stims.

Rae, welcome(back) hun. i hope you dont have to be here too long and are onto the pg threads before you know it!

Mons - yay for Tuesday.

miss_c - i hope you are doing ok hun. such a lot on for you ATM. best of luck with your ILs arriving and hope you are doing ok with the stims. and yes, i felt like a guinea pig on my first cycle. they just need to get to know how you respond as everyone is so different.

mel, you have a good chance with your FET. there have been BFPs with a FET in here not so long ago and look at mon's friend. hang in there hun. you are doing the best you can.

vicki, way to go girl! you will be a pro in a day or so.

melsta, oh hun i am sorry the lucrin is doing that to your head. i hope you are feeling better now.

pam, hope you had fun injecting while away! when is your BT?

carla, nice to see you hun. best of luck for your FET. i hope you are feeling ok.

BG, BW i hope the stims are going well.

TL, hugs to you sweetie. well done on the appointment.

MM, i am sooooo fidgety waiting for your results tomorrow. sending you loads of hugs and positive vibes.

shannon, best of luck with all those people and work hun.

jacqui are you in here? i haven't seen your post but saw sushee's welcome. come on in hun and join us if you like.

smithy, slyder, hi to you both too. you are such great supporters of us all.

not much happening with me. DH reckons BOB is doing great. i would of course love a sign but realise we have done our best and must just wait. i wondered today whether my nipples were darker but i think i was hoping to see things. BT still a few days away. am considering getting an earlier one on the friday as am so busy on the saturday with the election.

[dusty]

miss_c good luck with your scan tomorrow!

[butterfly_warrior]

Good luck for tomorrow, Missy. I'm in for another blood test myself. Yep, consecutive days, just thankful one of them was a weekend so not too bad yet. Things are looking a little hairy for me with hyperstimulating again. Scared, but trying to focus on the positives...

And now for BW's mini-maths lesson in probability...

The stats I've read have a blast transfer in a woman under the age of 35 having a 42% success rate. It's a different (lower) figure for 3-day transfers, but I don't have the number on hand. This also means that there's a 58% chance of not being pregnant after any one cycle. Same stats per cycle and it can start to look fairly discouraging. However, when you start to look at what happens to the probabilities over multiple cycles...

The probability of you not being pregnant after two cycles of blast transfers becomes 0.58x0.58 = 0.34. Because probabilities have to add up to one, and there's only two options (pregnant ant not pregnant), this means that there's a 66% chance of you being pregnant after two cycles.

Add in a third cycle, and you're now up to an 80% chance of being pregnant. Subsequent cycles become 88%, 93%, 96%, 98%, 99%. Unfortunately, it never does actually get to 100%, but it does get closer and closer.

Just to put things in perspective a little... I believe that a normal couple with no fertility issues trying naturally has a 20% chance of conceiving each cycle. This means an 80% chance of not conceiving. While it took a couple doing IVF with blast transfers 8 cycles to reach 99%, it takes the normal, fertile couple 20 cycles before they get above that 99%.

The other nasty thing with probability... and it's best explained by a simple example of tossing a coin. The chance of it landing heads is always 50%. It can land tails 10 times in a row (unlikely, but possible!), but the chance of that coin landing heads in the next toss is still 50%. It's the kind of trick question that gets kids doing exams all the time.

In summary - the more cycles you do, the better your overall chance of being pregnant becomes. However, the chance for each individual cycle itself is still the same. It's just the more times you toss the coin, the more chances you have that it will actually one day land heads. It just happens that the coin we're given is unfairly weighted...

Does that all make sense? I don't have individual stats for fresh and frozen transfers, but I can help with the maths if someone can come up with the numbers.

Here ends the lesson in probability...

BW

[slyder]

In summary - the more cycles you do, the better your overall chance of being pregnant becomes. However, the chance for each individual cycle itself is still the same. It's just the more times you toss the coin, the more chances you have that it will actually one day land heads.

Mel, that is the point I was trying to make. For each FET you do, you increase your chances for the cycle (cycle being stim ET and FET/s). But the actual chance per FET is something in the order of 30%. In the end, stats are great but Disraeli also said they were crap. All you can do is keep rolling the dice and waiting for the 6

[butterfly_warrior]

Have to agree with you completely, Slyder. Or is that agree with Disraeli? Statistics (which are completely different to probabilities! Don't get me started on "average"!) can be misused and abused and made to say whatever you want them to say.

There's not a lot of comfort in understanding the mathematics behind it. Sometimes I take refuge in the maths to escape the emotions attached to it all... not always successfully, though! The best way to look at it is just keep trying. Even without the probability aspect to it, each time you cycle, your doctor learns more about you and your response to the drugs, and can hopefully improve your response and your chances next time. If you stop trying altogether, your chance of getting pregnant very, very rapidly approaches zero.

BW