Megsmum, I'm not sure I can actually answer your questions in full, but I do know that it is possible for your E2 levels to jump up and down a bit before ovulation occurs. Are the blood tests also checking LH levels to see when that surges? That's the best indicator of when ovulation will happen. It's also possible that stress can delay ovulation - I've seen this happen in the ovulation tracking for some of my FET cycles.

BW