I can never just leave DD in the bed and just pat her to settle, I need to pick her up. Many a time after a quick cuddle she will do a big burp! If I just left her there and patted she would have still cried. (I used to try this when she was younger).

I don't watch the clock either. If I am using music to help her settle, then I judge the time by what song we are at. If she is not asleep by the middle of the 2nd song, then she isn't going to, so we have a break and try again at the next big eye rubs.